Keep it Simple, Stupid!
The first annual beach clam bake at the lake might be my last…
Long story short: Too much thinking went into the fire pit process — and the results were mixed.
It sounds simple enough. Dig a hole, start the fire, heat the rocks. Cover, then cook. What could possibly go wrong?
For starters, my “simple” setup turned into an over-engineered box of ductwork panels lined by medium sized rocks (brought over from the other end of the bay), topped with hardwood and lump charcoal.
I then topped the burning coals with real ocean seaweed I flew in to act as the insulator to steam the seafood and veggies. Seaweed, corn, potatoes, onions, andouille sausage, Old Bay seasoned big gulf shrimp, and clams filled our smoking sand oven. Then more seaweed with water-soaked burlap to top off the project…
Here’s where my trouble started. The fancy fire pit didn’t get enough oxygen to keep hot. It ended up being a slow, slow steam with my appetite for clams greatly diminished when all was said and done.
Don’t get me wrong — I have no complaints about spending full day on beach. The end result was just less rewarding than the buildup. But hey, beer did make the day tolerable.
Sometimes over complicating the obvious is detrimental. Just look at the markets! I keep hearing about stocks selling off over the past couple of weeks. But is that what we’re really seeing?
Last I checked, we’re currently churning sideways — NOT “selling off” as some say.
Remember, overthinking the markets can get you in trouble. The S&P has remained between 2800 and 3200 for three months. It’s now hovering around 3000 — a level we should continue to watch on our weekly charts.
Keep it In the Money,
PS: Markets are closed on Friday. Enjoy the holiday weekend!
Chart of the Day: The Summer of the IPO
As the country continues to lurch toward something resembling a recovery, new stock listings are also beginning to perk up.
“Globally, there were only 97 listings — down 48% year-over-year — and a 67% decrease in proceeds to $13.2 billion compared with April and May 2019, according to data from EY’s quarterly Global IPO Trends report,” MarketWatch reports. “This brought down overall IPO activity for the first half of the year, with volumes and proceeds falling by 19% and 8%, respectively, compared with the same period a year earlier.”
Yet while new listings disappeared during the coronavirus shutdowns, the performance of recent offerings has stayed strong. In fact, the Renaissance IPO ETF continues its orderly recovery off its march lows this month, bouncing perfectly off its 20-day moving average yesterday:
Contrary to popular belief, new IPOs aren’t falling off a cliff in this market. Don’t be afraid to add some of the strongest names to your trading watch list.
Trading Tip of the Day
Most traders fail and give up before they ever make a profit.
Some new traders throw in the towel after churning their accounts for months. Others tap out after the sting of a big loss. Inevitably, a few gunslingers wipe out their hard-earned profits on a big bet gone wrong.
I don’t have any hard data that explain why so many folks fail to make it in the trading game. After all, there is no exit interview with your broker when you blow up your account.
But if I had to guess, I would say most traders don’t make it for one simple reason:
They try to outsmart the stock market.
Many market newcomers view trading as a battle of wits. They’ve determined that they need firepower to beat the market into submission. That means mastering complicated software and learning how to use countless indicators to pinpoint trade ideas.
Yet over the years, I’ve found that the more complex you make your trading strategy, the worse your results will be in the long run. When it comes to trading, simple is best.
Of course, simple doesn’t always mean easy. It’s not easy to implement a simple trading strategy. But with the right mindset and guidance, you can begin your own journey down the path to profitability.
— Greg Guenthner