Thanks, Lazy CNBC… You Just Created A Buying Opportunity
Yesterday in my office I had CNBC on in the background because I wanted to get a feel for the general tone the media was taking.
At some point, I lost count of how many times they mentioned that September is supposed to be the weakest month of the year.
It seems like the hosts asked just about every guest (professional money managers, economists, corporate executives, etc.) about whether they thought the market would pull back this month.
Technically, the TV commentators were correct. On average, September has been a weak month for the past 50 years. But there have still been plenty of good AND bad Septembers from year to year.
You see, these kind of data points are pretty much for lazy investors. You take an average of 50 different years and come up with a blanket statement.
It takes more work to actually look and see what’s going on behind the scenes in this market than it does to just press a button and average the September returns for 50 years. But in this case, it seems like the media is taking the easy way out by making a huge deal out of something that really isn’t meaningful.
The good news is that if mindless investors pay attention to this hype, and sell shares to start the month of September, that gives us a chance to buy some of our favorite stocks at cheap prices.
Here’s What Really Matters In Today’s Market
On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management released manufacturing data for the U.S.
During the month of August, the index rose to 61.3 from July’s reading of 58.1. In other words, manufacturing picked up significantly last month. (This was much stronger than what investors were expecting.)
It’s very interesting to see manufacturing picking up DESPITE the fact that we’re in a “trade war” — or at least a very heated trade skirmish.
Sure, we just inked a deal with Mexico and one with Canada may be close behind. But that deal wasn’t in place during most of last month. And yet, manufacturing hummed along just fine even with the challenges.
Here’s another spot where I think the media has things totally bass-ackwards (as my grandpa says).
Economists on TV are talking about “peak earnings” and “peak manufacturing” — as if this is as good as it gets and we’re close to rolling over and moving into a recession.
Well, what do you think is going to happen to manufacturing when a trade agreement is reached with Canada, Europe, and eventually China? Do you think manufacturing will slow down?
Manufacturing actually has a lot of room to grow because if other countries are agreeing to buy more U.S. made goods, which is a primary goal of the Trump administration, we’ll need to actually MAKE more stuff.
And that means higher earnings for U.S. companies, better jobs for U.S. workers, and of course all of that flows through to the stock market.
So while you may not have heard a lot about this positive manufacturing report on the news, it’s another sign that our economy is growing steadily. And it’s a healthy report for the stock market and for our investments.
Here’s to growing and protecting your wealth!